Ventura, CA Real Estate Market Forecast 2023

Ventura, CA Real Estate Market Forecast 2023

  • 12/28/22

If you are looking into Ventura real estate, it’s essential to prepare yourself for 2023’s real estate market and predict how the changes will affect the Ventura housing scene. There’s a rapid movement to a new paradigm in the real estate market. Make sure you know all the facts as you prepare for the year ahead.

2023 holds a lot of promise for the right buyer. However, despite having more properties to choose from and increased negotiating power, some potential setbacks still lie ahead. There’s a lot to consider as you prepare your future investments, but the end result will be a gorgeous property in this desirable coastal locale. Read on for expert insight from top agent Eric Swartz into what the future holds for the Ventura real estate market.

Reduction in Homes Sold

The booming housing market of 2020 through 2021 enticed homeowners to cash in on their property investments, with a red-hot seller’s market seen across the board. In 2022, we’ve seen the market shift slightly. The rising interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainties nationwide have left many buyers hesitant to enter the housing scene. Thus, existing home sales have sharply decreased over the year. According to the latest market update from the California Association of Realtors, in November 2022, there were only 32 existing home sales in Ventura. This is a 47.5% decrease compared to last year, mirroring the cooldown of the market.

Overall, the California Association of Realtors predicts a decline in the total number of homes selling in 2023. The high inflation and interest rates will attract fewer buyers than seen over the last couple of years. Fewer buyers, and less motivation to sell due to economic stressors, will likely lead to a 7.2% decrease in total properties sold next year. 

Increasing Inventory

Going along with the reduction in sales, the number of active listings has increased significantly. As of November 2022, there were 63 homes for sale in Ventura on average per month, which is an 85.3% increase compared to what we saw in 2021. Across Ventura County as a whole, unsold inventory amounts to 4.7 months of inventory, which is a 27% increase year-to-year.

This rise in inventory is good news for buyers, as they will have more properties to choose from when comparing homes, and they will likely feel less pressure to act immediately or make an offer well above the asking price right off the bat. 

Leveling Prices

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines hoping for lower prices, 2023 may be the year. After years of homes for sale in Ventura rising to higher and higher prices, a change in the market is near. The California Association of Realtors predicts that there may be an 8.8% decrease in median housing costs in the state over the following year. For once, waiting could benefit the buyer. 

In Ventura County specifically, we have already seen the soaring prices cooling off after the red-hot market of the past couple of years. As of November 2022, the median sold price of single-family properties was $860,000, which is only 0.2% higher than the $855,000 of November 2021. Within Ventura, the existing median price of single-family homes was $957,000 in November 2022, which is only 10% more than last year. In addition, 42.9% of active listings have experienced a price reduction. This leveling off of home prices may allow buyers who have been hesitant to finally enter the housing scene, as it seems that sellers are becoming more willing to negotiate.

Overall, the forecast shows housing costs continuing to rise through the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, though they’re already slowing down. It’s an exciting prospect if you’re considering future property investments. Purchasing at the upcoming end of the housing cycle provides the chance for the most significant returns. 

Great Time to Buy

For years, the market has climbed to new heights at every turn – buying felt like a race to the top. The question lingered, when would the bubble pop? While real estate lives in cycles, there’s more to the current changes than what meets the eye at first.

The good news? It’s a great time to buy! Housing prices are finally leveling out instead of soaring up. Best of all, due to higher interest rates, there are fewer buyers today than last year. So, you will no longer have to battle it out with hordes of other interested parties. The buyer is finally gaining back some of their power. Fewer bidding wars mean that prices will stop inflating tens of thousands of dollars over the asking price. Some houses are even selling for under asking. Contingencies return in the negotiating process – no more buying blindly without an inspection. There are plenty of benefits to investing in a Ventura property in 2023.    

Affordability is Still Low

While prices will level out, it may not be enough to improve housing affordability or access. High-interest rates may offset a reduction in housing costs. Depending on what a buyer is approved for, they may pay more for a house that technically costs less. The California Association of Realtors predicts that affordability will be worse in 2023. Their models show a 1% drop, going from a 19% affordability rate to 18%, despite an expected 8.8% price drop. CAR sees high interest and inflation leading to a cooling market. The power buyers gained from less competition and lower prices may be offset by these economic factors, taking back some of the buyer’s power.  

Nothing like 2009

Let’s make one thing clear: things are changing, but this is nothing like the crash from 2009. The factors causing the drop in the market are nothing like those of the real estate market crash from so long ago.

The effects of the global pandemic significantly shape today’s economic changes. While we were reaching the height of a housing market cycle and would’ve likely seen a slight dip in the market, the effects of the last two years are taking a toll on the overall economy. High inflation rates lead to high interest rates, causing fewer buyers and a calmer market. Predictions show rates staying high next year, meaning that while lower prices will be attractive to some buyers, the interest rates will be prohibitive to others.

Consider Skipping a Mortgage

High-interest rates make a significant impact on your monthly payments. There’s something to be said for buying a house outright. Tax savings in the past made a mortgage worth paying a little more for the house overall. Current interest rates, however, erase any such offsets, particularly when calculated with the cost of luxury homes in Ventura, CA. Buying outright allows you to take advantage of the reduced pricing without the financial hit of high-interest rates. You’ll still need a realtor to help protect you during major purchases, but you could save a good chunk of change on closing costs and interest payments. You’ll pay less overall, even after taxes. 

Ready to get started?

If you’re entering the Ventura real estate market in 2023, there’s no time like the present to start preparing. The first step is finding the right agent. Eric Swartz is here to ensure you have the latest knowledge and best techniques for expertly navigating the 2023 real estate market. Feel confident and go into your shopping experience with ease with Eric by your side.

*Header photo courtesy of Shutterstock

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There are a lot of nuances to be aware of when buying or selling a home and I take pride in being well versed in the finer points of CC&Rs, sewer line liability, mello roos, seawall maintenance, short term rentals laws, and more. Contact me today to discuss all your real estate needs!

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